These rankings are based off of team performances at the NAQT HSNCT and PACE NSC, and how many of those players are returning. Flaws with these rankings can be due to:
1) Being unable to project individual player performance rates compared with those of others.
2) Teams that did not bring key players to HSNCT or NSC.
3) Difficulties projecting how players from multiple teams will perform together once on the same team.
4) Teams that were unable to bring additional teams to HSNCT or NSC.
5) Teams that return all of their players could be overrated.
6) “Shadow effects,” where a fantastic player’s stats cover up the possible impact of a teammate.
These rankings only consider performances at the NAQT HSNCT and the PACE NSC. I am of the opinion that if you want to be considered a major high school team, you have to play the big boy tournaments.
Note that this update includes a lot of new calculations for difficulty adjustments. We now have over 4000 stat lines for over 2000 teams. These teams make up, in my estimation, the top 5% of quiz bowl teams in the U.S. and Canada.
I should specifically note that a few tumbles in the rankings from this set are due to some split teams being discovered and a couple of major stat errors being discovered. These have been accounted for and reflected in the following rankings.
Dropping out: 74 St. John’s B, 76 Arcadia B, 78 Ladue B, 80 Hume-Fogg, 82 IMSA B, 85 Harmony A, 87 University, 92 Parkway West, 93 Corbin, 94 Robinson, 95 Naperville North, 96 North Kansas City, 98 Irvine B, 99 Wheaton North, 100 Utica Academy
Entering: 50 Athens Academy, 53 North Hollywood B, 64 Oak Ridge, 67 Manheim Township, 70 Farragut, 83 Raleigh Charter B, 84 Livingston, 86 Lexington, 90 High Tech C, 91 Bergen County A, 92 La Jolla A, 93 San Dieguito A, 95 Hunter B, 97 Culver A, 100 Metea Valley
We finally have a full stat line for Bellarmine A, allowing me to mostly retire the “Bellarmine B” tag. Less than shockingly, they’re good at quiz bowl. We also get 2 other teams new to the rankings, and a couple teams moving up from their previous ranks.
Next update will probably be in about a month.
Here are the earliest set of rankings for this season. I have listed each team’s adjusted points per bonus. Preseason rankings are completely ignored at this point.
Edit: turns out my Mission San Jose A stats were incorrect, putting them a bit lower than they were before. I’ve updated the top 25 and replaced them with St. Joseph of New Jersey.
I’d like to thank everyone for following the blog this year, and for the feedback and assistance I’ve received. I’m happy to be told that, due to these rankings, teams have received the acclaim and support they deserve for their talents. That said, I am very happy to have finished this for the year; I don’t believe you’ll see a set of rankings extend to 200 teams again.
I’ve broken the top 40 or so into tiers, in an attempt to show how some teams are grouped tightly together. Just because one team’s a spot ahead in the rankings doesn’t mean that the decision was an easy one to make.
Best of luck to teams this weekend at HSNCT, NSC in two weekends, and NASAT the weekend after that. I hope to see many of you in Columbus the weekend of the 16th.
Your final pre-nationals rankings are after the jump.
I’ve updated the difficulty adjustment values (available after the jump). The final rankings before nationals should appear by Thursday if all goes well.
It should be noted that the final rankings will display teams’ adjusted points-per-bonus, rather than their “raw” score.
Big jumps: St. Mark’s, 32 to 19; Bellaire, 80 to 55; Marist, 95 to 60; Chattahoochee B, 100 to 63; Maggie Walker A, 89 to 70; Savannah, 124 to 103; Alpharetta, 149 to 135
Entering: 77 Barrington; 88 Marian Central Catholic; 90 Notre Dame; 106 Maggie Walker B; 111 Kinkaid; 117 Maine South; 126 St. Stephens; 132 Bellaire B; 141 Loyola B; 148 Bloomington
Exiting: 140 Caesar Rodney, 141 Millburn, 142 Frenchtown, 143 Bellarmine B, 144 Mounds Park, 145 Daviess County, 146 Fremd, 147 Early College at Guilford B, 148 Lake Zurich, 150 Eden Prairie
I only added two tournaments this time around: Ohio State’s Winter War and Niles West’s mirror of BDAT.
I have moved Centennial up to number one. I’ve been considering it for a bit now, and decided to pull the trigger. I would not be surprised to see Hunter (or Bellarmine) take it once we get full stat lines.
Also, Latin School of Chicago hops up one spot, and Detroit Catholic Central B moves up 3. Other than that, nothing happened in the rankings really.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Continue reading