1st Top 50 – 10/14/13

Yep, updated rankings. Lots of changes. Things will get clearer in a few months; I’m waiting for adjustments on sets’ PPBs to clear up, not to mention the actual performances of teams.

Edit 1: Removed a fake DCC B from the rankings as well as a duplicate set of rankings; added Olmsted Falls and St. Mark
Edit 2: I somehow can’t spell “Crest.”
Edit 3: Turns out that DCC and Wilmington Charter’s stats from Princeton were incorrect on the original source I used. I updated their rankings, which drops them to 18th and 19th in the country.
Edit 4: Corrected mislabeling of Seven Lakes A as B.

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Site Addition

I’m pleased to announce that Max Schindler, formerly of Ladue High School and now of the University of Chicago, has agreed to join on as a contributor. He will be helping me try to improve the rankings on this site. He’ll also be responsible for producing write ups regarding set difficulty, question conversion, and various other subjects he might be interested in. Welcome him to the site the next time you interact with him!

2013-2014 Pre-Season Top 25

These rankings are based off of team performances at the NAQT HSNCT and PACE NSC, and how many of those players are returning. Flaws with these rankings can be due to:

1) Being unable to project individual player performance rates compared with those of others.
2) Teams that did not bring key players to HSNCT or NSC.
3) Difficulties projecting how players from multiple teams will perform together once on the same team.
4) Teams that were unable to bring additional teams to HSNCT or NSC.
5) Teams that return all of their players could be overrated.
6) “Shadow effects,” where a fantastic player’s stats cover up the possible impact of a teammate.

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Assorted Notes on HSNCT From 2009-2012

10-0 teams:
Georgetown Day, 2009, 5th
Dorman A, 2011, 21st (tied)

Worst 9-1 finishes, each year:
2012: 21st (t), High Tech A (0-2 in playoffs)
2011: 2nd, LASA A (6-2 in playoffs)
2010: 7th (t), Detroit Country Day (3-2 in playoffs)
2009: 2nd, Dorman A (5-2; only 9-1 team)

Best 7-3 finishes:

3rd, LASA A, 2012
5th (tied), Auburn (IL), 2012
7th (t), Torrey Pines, 2010
7th (t), Chaska, 2009
7th (t), Chattahoochee A, 2009
7th (t), Auburn (IL), 2009
7th (t), Walter Johnson, 2009
8th (t), Cistercian A, 2012
8th (t), Loyola, 2012
8th (t), St. Anselm’s, 2012
8th (t), Detroit Catholic Central B, 2011
8th (t), duPont Manual A, 2011
8th (t), Novi A, 2011
8th (t), Thomas Jefferson B (VA), 2011

Best 6-4 finishes:
7th (tied), Adair County, 2010
8th (tied), Enloe, 2012
11th (tied), Seven Lakes, 2010
13th (tied), St. Joseph (NJ), 2012
13th (tied), IMSA, 2011
17th (tied), Centennial, 2010
17th (tied), Dorman B, 2009
17th (tied), Hume-Fogg, 2009

Predicted HSNCT 8-2 or better teams

According to the discussion here, you can expect roughly this many teams with these records after Saturday:

9-1: 2 teams
8-2: 12 teams

Here’s my attempt at projecting them, given limited roster information.

9-1 teams: Ladue, St. John’s

8-2: Arcadia, Bellarmine, Belvidere North, Detroit Catholic Central, Dorman, IMSA A, LASA A, LASA B, Maggie Walker*, Montgomery Blair, Richard Montgomery, Thomas Jefferson A

Cistercian and Loyola will be missing a player(s) on Saturday; I expect both to go 7-3.
*I lack roster info here, so I’m assuming that they’re at full power

2013 Final Pre-Nationals Rankings

For the second straight year, I’ve grouped teams together in approximate tiers. This is an attempt to show some bunches of teams that have similar strength – the gaps aren’t that large in between, but that’s about where I see gaps when I do. Besides that, I put a couple notes on some top 20 teams, but not too much information.

Thanks to everyone that followed the rankings this year. This summer, we’ll try to take a look at accuracy of these rankings and the difficulty of sets.

Best of luck to everyone this weekend at HSNCT and in the coming weekends at NSC and NASAT.

Entering: 84 Arcadia B, 99 Ladue B, 100 Escobar B
Falling out: 91 Bergen County, 95 Hunter B, 97 Culver
Big jumps: Arcadia A, 20 to 10; Hickman, 46 to 26; Canyon Crest, 76 to 61; LASA C, 78 to 68; La Jolla A, 92 to 74

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