For the second straight year, I’ve grouped teams together in approximate tiers. This is an attempt to show some bunches of teams that have similar strength – the gaps aren’t that large in between, but that’s about where I see gaps when I do. Besides that, I put a couple notes on some top 20 teams, but not too much information.

Thanks to everyone that followed the rankings this year. This summer, we’ll try to take a look at accuracy of these rankings and the difficulty of sets.

Best of luck to everyone this weekend at HSNCT and in the coming weekends at NSC and NASAT.

Entering: 84 Arcadia B, 99 Ladue B, 100 Escobar B
Falling out: 91 Bergen County, 95 Hunter B, 97 Culver
Big jumps: Arcadia A, 20 to 10; Hickman, 46 to 26; Canyon Crest, 76 to 61; LASA C, 78 to 68; La Jolla A, 92 to 74

Front-Runners – the most obvious pick to win a tournament comes from here.
1. Ladue A (MO) (1) – if you had asked me who would have won HSNCT and NSC before this season, I would have guaranteed you that Ladue would win. Any other team’s name would have earned a Gilbert Gottfried-like shout of YOU FOOL. I didn’t see a conversation about this even as being possible – anyone who said Ladue would not win was clearly misinformed, out of their mind, a huge homer, or some combination of the previous three.

It’s not that Ladue’s a disappointment; they’ve been #1 in every update I’ve done and there hasn’t been that much debate about changing it. Ladue put up the highest PPB in NAQT IS set history with their 26.57 at their state championship. They put up a preposterous 27.02 ppb on a HSAPQ set at the University of Missouri’s Tiger Bowl, while powering almost 15 questions a round.

But the gap is not as big as I envisioned last summer. They’re still my pick to win HSNCT and NSC. But could one of the next three teams beat them at the right time? Yes.

2. St. John’s A (TX) (4) – You could put these next three teams in any order and I could see the reasoning.
3. Loyola A (IL) (2)
4. Bellarmine A (CA) (3) – The one time the full team shows up to an event, they get 17.54 ppb on ACF Regionals. That’s a “normal difficulty” college set. That number’s higher than teams like Northwestern and Rice.

The question here is if Sameer’s going to be as prepared to play as the other good teams at HSNCT (since they aren’t going to NSC). He’s only played one quiz bowl event this year. Loyola played more than 15 tournaments.

Also, the last time I discounted a team this high because of inactivity, it was 2011 State College team. They won both HSNCT and NSC.

Top Contenders – These teams have a lot of ability and could conceivably come out victorious at one of the nationals.

5. Detroit Catholic Central A (MI) (5)

6. Dorman A (SC) (7)
7. Montgomery Blair A (MD) (6)
8. Cistercian A (TX) (9)
9. LASA A (TX) (8)
10. Arcadia A (CA) (20) – They were pushed up by their performance last weekend at Triton Spring. If you’re a fan of teams “peaking at the right time,” this could be an upset pick.

11. IMSA A (IL) (10)
12. Thomas Jefferson A (VA) (12)
13. Belvidere North A (IL) (14)

Dark Horses – It’s possible that they can win a national championship. Not terribly likely, but enough improvement makes it a possibility.
14. Maggie Walker A (VA) (13)
15. Richard Montgomery A (MD) (17)

16. LASA B (TX) (18)
17. East Chapel Hill A (NC) (11)
18. Norcross A (GA) (15)
19. Hunter A (NY) (16)
20. Northmont A (OH) (19)

21. Wilmington Charter A (22) (DE)

Upset Specialists – I can’t envision these teams winning a national championship, but they could alter the final results by knocking a team out of contention with a well-placed win.

22. Macomb A (IL)(24)
23. Raleigh Charter A (NC) (25)
24. Escobar A (CA) (26)
25. Dorman B (SC) (33)

26. Hickman A (MO) (46) – Another team that moved up because their best performance came late in the year.
27. Early College at Guilford A (NC) (21)
28. Ridgewood A (NJ) (27)

Lesser Upset Specialists – Similar to the previous tier, but not quite as strong.
29. Etowah A (GA) (28)
30. Detroit Country Day A (MI) (29)

31. St. Joseph A (NJ) (23)
32. Dunbar A (KY) (30)
33. St. Joseph A (IN) (31)
34. Marist A (GA) (32)
35. North Hollywood A (CA) (38)

36. Chattahoochee A (GA) (35)
37. Pikeville A (KY) (34)
38. duPont Manual A (KY) (37)

The Rest
Never say never. These teams don’t have numbers as impressive as those above them, but they’re definitely strong teams. High finishes aren’t out of the question for them.

39. Auburn A (IL) (36)
40. High Tech A (NJ) (40)

41. Western Albemarle A (VA) (43)
42. Winchester Thurston A (PA) (39)
43. Ezell-Harding A (TN) (41)
44. Solon A (OH) (44)
45. NCSSM A (NC) (45)

46. Walter Johnson A (MD) (47)
47. High Tech B (NJ) (42)
48. Santa Monica A (CA) (48)
49. Maggie Walker B (VA) (49)
50. Athens Academy A (GA) (50)

51. Torrey Pines A (CA) (58)
52. Adlai Stevenson A (IL) (51)
53. Bellaire A (TX) (54)
54. St. Mark’s A (TX) (52)
55. North Hollywood B (CA) (53)

56. Carbondale A (IL) (55)
57. Olmsted Falls A (OH) (56)
58. Sycamore A (OH) (59)
59. George Mason A (VA) (60)
60. Irvine A (CA) (61)

61. Canyon Crest A (CA) (76)
62. Seven Lakes A (TX) (62)
63. Christiansburg A (VA) (57)
64. Oak Ridge A (TN) (64)
65. Kellenberg A (NY) (63)

66. Mountain Lakes A (NJ) (65)
67. Cave Spring A (VA) (66)
68. LASA C (TX) (78)
69. Manheim Township A (PA) (67)
70. Irvington A (NY) (68)

71. Wayzata A (MN) (69)
72. Farragut A (TN) (70)
73. South Forsyth A (GA) (71)
74. La Jolla A (CA) (92)
75. Detroit Catholic Central B (MI) (72)

76. Georgetown Day School A (DC) (74)
77. duPont Manual B (KY) (73)
78. Richard Montgomery B (MD) (77)
79. Westview A (CA) (79)
80. New Kent A (VA) (81)

81. Hanover A (NH) (85)
82. Russell A (KY) (75)
83. Fisher Catholic A (OH) (82)
84. Arcadia B (CA) (UR)
85. Troy A (MI) (87)

86. Oakland Mills A (MD) (80)
87. State College A (PA) (89)
88. Lexington A (MA) (86)
89. Raleigh Charter B (NC) (83)
90. Walnut Hills A (OH) (88)

91. Livingston A (NJ) (84)
92. San Dieguito A (CA) (93)
93. High Tech C (NJ) (90)
94. Desert Vista A (AZ) (99)
95. Millburn A (NJ) (98)

96. St. Charles Prep A (OH) (94)
97. Metea Valley A (IL) (100)
98. Dunbar B (KY) (96)
99. Ladue B (MO) (UR)
100. Escobar B (CA) (UR)