A quick reminder: please consider donating to the fundraiser for PACE I’m doing based off of my work for the rankings. You can find more information here. PACE is a great organization that I’ve really enjoyed working for for a long time now. Any gift would be greatly appreciated.
I’m very excited for this upcoming season. I hope everyone has a lot of fun and a lot of success.
1. Katy Taylor A (TX) (pre-nationals 2016 ranking: 6) – 26.49
2. Westview A (CA) (12) – 26.24
3. Hunter A (NY) (9) – 26.18
4. Chattahoochee A (GA) (19) – 25.42
5. Detroit Catholic Central A (MI) (1) – 25.24
6. Ithaca A (NY) (21) – 25.14
7. Dorman A (SC) (13) – 25.10
8. Naperville North A (IL) (22) – 24.86
9. Barrington A (IL) (33) – 24.33
10. Stevenson A (IL) (32) – 24.31
11. Dunbar A (KY) (38) – 24.28
12. St. John’s A (TX) (40) – 24.01
13. Detroit Country Day A (MI) (51) – 23.75
14. LASA A (TX) (2) – 23.20
15. Battle Ground Academy A (TN) (76) – 23.07
16. Hume-Fogg A (TN) (71) – 22.98
17. Darien A (CT) (70) – 22.57
18. Lehigh Valley Academy A (PA) (75) – 22.54
19. Irvine A (CA) (84) – 22.42
20. Phillips Academy A (MA) (89)- 22.35
21. Harker A (CA) (79)- 22.21
22. Mountain Lakes A (NJ) (100) – 22.11
23. Washington A (MO) (86) – 22.01
24. Southside A (SC) (87) – 21.95
25. Lisgar A (ON) (88) – 21.92
HSQBRank 
One small note, it’s James Taylor from Katy, TX.
Every stats page lists them as Katy Taylor, so that’s the name I’m going with for them. But you’re correct as to the actual school name and location.
IIRC, Katy Taylor was mostly used for regular season tournaments, while James E. Taylor was used for national tournaments. The names are pretty much interchangeable.
Which tournaments are these PPBs from
They’re each team’s adjusted PPB based off returning PPG from their best performance last year, with B team performances added in at a reduced rate as necessary.
Can you explain the reasoning behind leaving TJ off this list?
They graduated most of their A team scoring and some of their B team scoring, so I have them projected outside of the top 25 right now.
I suspect that Fred’s model did not account for just how much of a shadow effect Ryan had on the underclassmen. If it didn’t include data for HSNCT/NSC, it also might not have taken into account a fair amount of improvement by last year’s sophomores. My best guess as to the “actual” ppb that a full-strength TJ A would put up at the start of the season would average between 23 and 24.
Yeah, there’s no real way to account for this from what I can tell.
Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn and cauldron bubble.
++++++
Cool it with a baboon’s blood,
Then the charm is firm and good.
++++++
Macbeth’s witches will let us know
how ‘firm and good’ are the preseason
prognostications’ — Good Luck to all!