Looking at the past 5 years of the HSNCT, we can expect about 85 teams to make the playoffs.
Percentage of preliminary records over the past 5 years:
10-0: 0.1%
9-1: 1.2%
8-2: 4.8%
7-3: 11.1%
6-4: 20.6%
5-5: 24.9%
4-6: 19.9%
3-7: 11.4%
2-8: 4.8%
1-9: 1.2%
0-10: 0.1%
Following the bell curve, one can expect approximately this many teams with these records:
9-1: 3
8-2: 11
7-3: 25
6-4: 46
5-5: 55
4-6: 44
3-7: 26
2-8: 11
1-9: 3
For what it’s worth, in 10,000 simulations, the number of teams making the playoffs was always between 82 and 87. The most likely numbers were 38 at 7-3 or better and 47 at 6-4; or 39 at 7-3 or better and 45 at 6-4.